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Carrier Retention Risk Scorecards, Q2 2026
Q2 2026·by Rapid Relay Research Team·Published May 14, 2026
78 / 100
Highest score (ODFL, LTL)
LOW RISK
Rapid Relay Technologies, Q2 2026
38 / 100
Lowest score (KNX, TL)
HIGH RISK
Rapid Relay Technologies, Q2 2026
40 pts
Score spread (highest minus lowest)
Operation type, not size, explains the gap
Rapid Relay Technologies, Q2 2026
1 of 7
Carriers scored LOW RISK (70+)
ODFL only
Rapid Relay Technologies, Q2 2026
3 of 7
Carriers scored HIGH RISK (< 45)
KNX, TFI, HTLD
Rapid Relay Technologies, Q2 2026
55 / 100
Median score across cohort
Moderate risk: SNDR
Rapid Relay Technologies, Q2 2026
TL;DR
Seven of the largest publicly-tracked U.S. truckload and LTL carriers, scored on six retention-relevant operational dimensions, range from 38 (Knight-Swift) to 78 (Old Dominion). The score spread maps almost entirely to operation type, not carrier size or quality of management.
Key findings
- Old Dominion (LTL) leads at 78/100, functioning as the industry's closest public analog to the low-turnover archetype: short hauls, daily home time, network-anchored scheduling.
- Knight-Swift, the largest U.S. truckload carrier, scores lowest at 38/100, driven by its OTR-dominant mix and the high-churn driver population added through the U.S. Xpress integration.
- J.B. Hunt scores second-highest (63) on the strength of intermodal drayage: short regional moves with daily home time anchor a structurally favorable retention profile.
- Schneider (55) and Werner (57) sit in the moderate band thanks to dedicated mix shifts: Werner is now ~67% dedicated; Schneider has grown its dedicated/intermodal share to ~55%.
- No carrier in the cohort discloses a fleet-wide turnover rate publicly. Every score relies on proxies derived from 10-Ks, earnings calls, and trade press.
Summary Rankings, Q2 2026 Carrier Retention Risk Scorecards
| Rank | Carrier | Ticker | Primary Operation | Score | Risk Category |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Old Dominion Freight Line | ODFL | LTL | 78 | LOW RISK |
| 2 | J.B. Hunt Transport | JBHT | Intermodal / Dedicated | 63 | MODERATE RISK |
| 3 | Werner Enterprises | WERN | Dedicated / One-Way TL | 57 | MODERATE RISK |
| 4 | Schneider National | SNDR | Dedicated / Intermodal / TL | 55 | MODERATE RISK |
| 5 | Heartland Express | HTLD | Full Truckload OTR | 44 | HIGH RISK |
| 6 | Daseke (TFI) | TFI | Flatbed / Specialized | 41 | HIGH RISK |
| 7 | Knight-Swift Holdings | KNX | Truckload / LTL | 38 | HIGH RISK |
Scoring Dimensions (each scored 0–100, weighted)
| Dimension | Weight | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Est. Driver Turnover Rate | 30% | Disclosed rate or proxy from headcount delta + job postings + earnings commentary |
| Average Length of Haul | 20% | Disclosed or estimated avg LOH by primary operating segment |
| Fleet Mix: Dedicated % | 15% | Share of fleet under multi-year dedicated contracts |
| Asset Utilization | 15% | Revenue miles per tractor per week, OR efficiency, load volume trends |
| Mile Predictability | 10% | Driver income consistency, contract vs. spot exposure, schedule patterns |
| Home Time Structure | 10% | Structural home time frequency by operation type |
Score Interpretation
| Score Range | Risk Category | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| 70 – 100 | LOW RISK | Structural retention advantages; turnover likely well below industry average |
| 45 – 69 | MODERATE RISK | Mixed profile; dedicated/intermodal share offsets OTR exposure |
| 0 – 44 | HIGH RISK | OTR-dominant or structurally high-churn; turnover likely at or above 80–90% |
Methodology
All scores are derived exclusively from publicly available sources: SEC 10-K filings (FY2025), quarterly earnings releases and calls, investor presentations, and published trade press. No proprietary carrier data was used. Each carrier is scored across six dimensions, weighted as follows: Estimated Driver Turnover Rate (30%), Average Length of Haul (20%), Fleet Mix Dedicated Percentage (15%), Asset Utilization (15%), Mile Predictability (10%), and Home Time Structure (10%).
Where carriers do not disclose driver turnover (none in this cohort do at the fleet level), proxies were estimated from headcount delta, job-posting volume, and earnings-call commentary, calibrated against ATRI segment benchmarks. These scorecards reflect structural retention risk derivable from public data; they are not investment recommendations and do not constitute a complete operational assessment. Carrier-specific lane-level analysis would require proprietary data not available in public filings.
FAQs
Why doesn't this scorecard use actual driver turnover rates?+
Because none of the seven carriers in the cohort publicly disclose a fleet-wide driver turnover rate. The 30%-weighted "Estimated Driver Turnover Rate" dimension uses proxies derived from headcount changes in 10-Ks, job-posting volume, earnings-call commentary about retention pressure, and ATRI segment benchmarks. This is a limitation of public-data analysis. Carrier-specific lane-level analysis would require proprietary data.
Why is Knight-Swift (the largest U.S. truckload carrier) rated highest-risk?+
Score correlates with operation type, not size. Knight-Swift's 26,200-driver fleet remains heavily weighted toward OTR truckload, which structurally produces longer LOH, less predictable home time, and higher churn. The U.S. Xpress acquisition added significant volume but also a high-churn driver population that has pressured retention metrics. By contrast, Old Dominion (LTL) and J.B. Hunt (intermodal drayage) have operational structures that are inherently retention-favorable.
Is a LOW RISK score the same as a buy recommendation?+
No. These scorecards reflect structural and operational retention risk derived from public data. They are not investment recommendations. Retention is one input among many that affects carrier economics; valuation also depends on rate environment, fleet age, capital structure, customer concentration, and many other factors not addressed here.
How often is this index updated?+
Quarterly. Each release re-scores the cohort using the most recent SEC filings, earnings releases, and trade press coverage. Cohort composition may evolve over time as new public carriers warrant inclusion or as private carriers list.
Can I see the underlying calculations for each carrier?+
Yes. The full scorecard for each of the seven carriers, including all six dimension scores with analyst notes and source citations, is in the downloadable PDF. The dimension-by-dimension detail is what allows a reader to apply the same scoring framework to other carriers or to their own operation.
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